Jan 29, 2013 4:00pm EST
. eventually we'll have to deal with spending cuts and the debt ceiling debate. whether or not that's it. for the meantime, the markets run a long time just because they are soaking up all the stimulus from the fed. >> a lot of stimulus from the other central banks cutting trase today. greg, you want to get in front of this train and fight the fed? >> yeah, i think that the fed is going to continue pushing pretty hard this year but equity investors have to take a look at what's in the fed's tool backs and realize they have shot every arrow that they have got. they will keep gig qe this year, maybe another $1 trillion but even inside the fed there's doubts about how much more effective will be at this stage, what, with long-term interest rates as low as they are. tomorrow i don't expect any fireworks from them. i'll be interested to see how they characterize the economy, whether they are getting more comfortable with it now that we have the biggest piece of the fiscal cliff out of the way or whether they are still concerned that employment is sluggish an inflation is tracking kind of low.
Jan 29, 2013 1:00pm EST
and debt ceiling debate. it's come down markedly, 20.4%. that's the low as long as we've been asking this question and one of the big edrops we've seen. it comes in the next line as growth forecasts are rising. this the tail of the tape of the gdp forecast of our panelist. 52 responded this time around. you can see we started in march a year ago here. 2.74%. it's come down, down, down. it just shot up for the first time. not a big jump from 1.9 to 2.08. where are we for 2014, our first look, 2.56 growth a good trend, a number that could bring down the unemployment rate, although by a little bit. moving on, i want to show you two views of the economy from people who responded to our survey. bob bower says there's a decent chance that u.s. economy will get up a head of steam sometime in the second half and above trend growth early in 2014. head winds are fading and pent-up demand is surfacing. we adopt want to leave you with the good feeling. if congress doesn't solve fiscal problems, the economic signel will end with sharp dollar drop, inflation, interest rate rise and deficit surge.
Jan 29, 2013 6:00am EST
managers are telling washington right now. let's take a look at the next idea about the debt ceiling debate. i think this is a really important finding here, guys. we ask do you think congress is going to increase the debt ceiling every time it's reached, refuse to raise it at some point and don't know? you can see 86% are saying that congress will raise the debt ceiling every time it's reached this year, when i think about some of the reasons why stocks have gotten higher because i think that thread along with the fiscal cliff has come out of the market and that there's overwhelming sentiment that coss i solve the get problem. we asked wall street to grade our treasury secretary going out and one coming in. you can see a pretty strong sentiment that he was a seed secretary with a 2.2. jack lew, the sentiment there. 2.0. one more thing on the deficit i just want to say and maybe this is worthy of discussion here. i think this is a sign that things have improved, at these economists and guys on wall street are saying we should solve the deficit and do it now. i think if things were as bad as
Jan 29, 2013 9:00am EST
the debt ceiling will finally move our friends on the other side beyond their preoccupation with the horse race. already, senate democrats have committed to developing a budget this year after years of ducking their responsibilities to do so. hopefully this will be a serious exercise and not simply an excuse for them to try to raise taxes, which as we all know is just another way to avoid solving core problems. last week i came to the floor with a chart that showed that even if the president got every single tax increase he asked for, every one of them, we would still not evening come close to solving the problem. not even close. so let's not waste time with more pointless argument argument tax increases. we had that debate already. it's done, it's oamplet i call on democrats to approach it seriously and do it with order. we have to break this putting off all important work until the final hour. tweendz get back to regular order and that takes time. & that's why we need to get started right now. let the tough work of developing a budget and putting together a long-term policy to control go